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Persistent cold air during the first part of the spring is likely to cause severe weather to get off to a sluggish start in a heavily populated part of the nation. However, a marked turnaround is expected later in the spring for 2014.

On average, severe weather gradually ramps up moving forward through the spring. This year, the transition may occur later and may be more dramatic.

A spike in damaging thunderstorms, including some capable of producing tornadoes, is expected during May and June.

Early Season Temperature Extremes

According to AccuWeather long-range weather expert Paul Pastelok, "We expect a southward dip in steering-level winds to occur much of the time over a large part of the Midwest to the Eastern states during March and the first part of April."

This dip of strong winds high in the atmosphere, known as a jet stream trough, will generally keep warm, moist air at bay from near the Mississippi River to the Atlantic coast.

Last year, a similar setup occurred in much of the same area during the spring and led to a much lower-than-average severe weather season for the nation as a whole.

Thunderstorms are fueled by rising warm, moist air. As a general rule, the lower the temperature near the ground, the lower the risk for tornadoes and violent thunderstorms.

"This year, the ground is colder, the Great Lakes have an extensive amount of ice and the Gulf of Mexico waters are starting off colder than average," Pastelok said. "All of these can have a negative impact on temperatures in the lower atmosphere."

Over much of the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast, the tornado risk will be lower than average early on due to the colder-than-average environment expected.

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According to severe weather expert Dan Kottlowski, "As a positive note, we may not see the frequency and violence of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes that typically occur during March and much of April, because of the lingering chill impacting a significant part of the nation."

However, Kottlowski urged caution when comparing overall numbers of tornado and other severe weather incidents to other seasons.

"This is not to say there cannot be a couple of outbreaks of severe weather during the first part of the spring in portions of the Midwest, the South and even the Northeast," Kottlowski said. "People should not let their guard down."

Even during a minor severe weather event, all it takes is one tornado hitting a populated area to bring the potential for great loss of life and destruction.

Strong storm systems can exploit temperature extremes. These storms can allow building warm, moist air to surge in just long enough to trigger an outbreak of severe weather in an otherwise predominantly cool weather pattern.

There is one area where severe weather may get off to an early, typical start with the possibility of frequent severe weather events during March and April.

In portions of Texas, Oklahoma, western Arkansas and western Louisiana, Kottlowski and Pastelok both expect warmth to build quickly relative to the balance of the Central and Eastern states.

The AccuWeather long-range team has concerns for flooding over part of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys with this setup, however. Weakening thunderstorms could unload heavy rain as they move farther east and unwind in the semi-permanent cooler air.

Dramatic Pattern Change Later in Spring

Pastelok and Kottlowski expect the pattern from the Mississippi Valley to the East to change significantly during May and June and correspondingly expect a spike in severe weather incidents to progress northward and eastward.

"We expect a normal to perhaps an above-average amount of severe thunderstorms over the Central states during May and June," Kottlowski said.

Indications are that the jet stream will pull to the north during May and June and hence will allow warm, moist air to flow northward more regularly over the Midwest.

"While warmth combined with drier air may keep a lid on severe weather for a time in the East during May, the air should be thoroughly warm and moist over much of the Midwest and South Central states," Pastelok said.

Areas from the Dakotas and Minnesota to Wisconsin, Michigan, the Appalachians and Atlantic coast should experience surge of severe weather during June and July.

A significant number of severe weather events are likely to continue to occur over the balance of the Midwest and South Central states and expand to along the Rockies as spring draws to a close and summer begins.

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A powerful telescope in Chile has imaged the largest yellow star ever discovered.

The star, called HR 5171 A, shines 12,000 light-years from Earth in the center of a new image released today (March 12). Known as a "yellow hypergiant," the star is more than 1,300 times the diameter of the sun, much larger than scientists expected after earlier observations, European Southern Observatory officials said in a statement. You can see the yellow hypergiant in a new video from ESO as well.

HR 5171 A is 50 percent larger than the red supergiant Betelgeuse, the star that makes up one of the constellation Orion's shoulders. Only 12 yellow hypergiants have been found in the Milky Way, and they are in an unstable stage of life, according to ESO. Yellow hypergiants are rapidly changing, and shoot out material that forms a large atmosphere around the star.

"The new observations also showed that this star has a very close binary partner, which was a real surprise," Olivier Chesneau, a scientist of the Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur in France working with the VLT said in a statement. "The two stars are so close that they touch and the whole system resembles a gigantic peanut ... The companion we have found is very significant as it can have an influence on the fate of HR 5171 -- for example, stripping off its outer layers and modifying its evolution."

Although the huge star is very far from Earth, keen observers can come close to spotting it with the naked eye, ESO officials said. The star shines about 1 million times brighter than the sun.

"HR 5171 A has been found to be getting bigger over the last 40 years, cooling as it grows, and its evolution has now been caught in action," ESO officials said. Only a few stars are caught in this very brief phase, where they undergo a dramatic change in temperature as they rapidly evolve."

Chesneau and his international team of scientists used a special technique called interferometry to combine the light from multiple individual telescopes, creating a giant telescope they used to observe HR 5171 A, ESO officials said.

The new study will be published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.

Follow Miriam Kramer @mirikramer and Google+. Follow us @Spacedotcom, Facebook and Google+. Original article on Space.com.

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The storm was caused by a strong cold front moving through the north, according to AccuWeather Western U.S. Weather Expert Ken Clark.

"There were strong west winds ahead of the front that brought winds of 20 to 40 mph," Clark said. "A strong north wind developed with wind gusts up to 50+ mph that created the dust storm."

This radar image captured on Tuesday, March 11, 2014, shows the dust storm moving over Clovis, N.M.

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Picking up dirt and sand, the winds blew through multiple towns in both states with the top of the dust storm reaching up to 10,500 feet, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Frank Strait.

Along with the dust, the intensity of the storm classified it as a haboob in some areas, or an intense dust storm brought about by high winds.

A haboob appears on the horizon as the sun sets in Lubbock County in Wolfforth, Texas. (Photo/Melany Sarafis)

A view of the haboob and sunset is visible from the Texas Tech University campus on Tuesday, March 11, 2014. (Photo/Matt Mahalik)

Captured in western Texas, a haboob creates an ominous scene at sunset on Tuesday, March, 11, 2014. (Photo/Bruce Dennis)

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Thursday, March 13, 2014

Map of projected changes in global precipitation. (Scripps)

Global warming's crystal ball is clearing as climate models improve, and scientists now predict that some regions will see a month's less rain and snow by 2100.

The new rain and snow estimates indicate that subtropical spots - such as the Mediterranean, the Amazon, Central America and Indonesia - will undergo the biggest precipitation shifts in the coming decades. The number of dry days in these zones will rise by as many as 30 days per year, according to the study, published March 13 in the journal Scientific Reports.

"Looking at changes in the number of dry days per year is a new way of understanding how climate change will affect us that goes beyond just annual or seasonal mean precipitation changes, and allows us to better adapt to and mitigate the impacts of local hydrological changes," said Suraj Polade, a climate scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and lead study author.

The findings also suggest a rising probability of droughts and floods in the near future as annual rainfall becomes more variable, the researchers said. [Weather vs. Climate Change: Test Yourself]

"Variability is going to play a big part in making things worse [as climate changes]," Polade told Live Science. "When you're increasing the variability of the climate, one year you can have a flood and the next year you can have a drought. You can also have an increase in extreme precipitation events, with a whole year's precipitation in just a few storms."

South Africa, Mexico and western Australia will go without rain for 15 to 20 more days per year, and California is likely to have five to 10 more dry days per year by the end of the century, the study found.

Some of the subtropical missing moisture will head north: The study predicts the Arctic will have 40 more wet days a year, but the South Pole will only get 10 more wet days per year.

Rerouting the weather

Why the shifts? Answers vary, but previous research has pointed the finger at changing storm tracks, particularly for tropical cyclones such as hurricanes and typhoons. Climate models suggest that midlatitude cyclones may shift north, while those that hit near the equator will likely stay their usual course.

There are also poleward shifts in the vast atmospheric patterns that control where rain falls. For example, the Hadley cell, the large-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation that transports heat from the tropics to the subtropics, has marched south during recent decades, moving the subtropical dry zone (a band that receives little rainfall) along with it. The northern and southern jet streams, which mark where cold and warm air meet, also seem to be creeping toward the poles. Their movement away from the equator suggests that the Earth's tropical zones are expanding, according to recent studies. The jet streams play an important role in moving moisture around the higher latitudes.

"We are looking at why this is happening," Polade said. "Earlier studies suggest that warmer regions will get wetter, while colder regions can get wetter or drier," he said. "The tropics are also getting wetter or drier, while the subtropics are drying."

The report relies on the latest global climate models (known as CMIP5), which predict future climate change under certain greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. The study tested an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to 950 parts per million by 2100, more than twice the current level. The number means there would be 950 molecules of carbon dioxide in the air per every million air molecules.

Email Becky Oskin or follow her @beckyoskin. Follow us @livescience, Facebook & Google+. Original article on Live Science.

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Thursday, March 14, 2014

David Westerby of Kenosa, Wis., yells during the St. Patrick's Day parade in Chicago, Saturday, March, 16, 2013. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

It will soon be the time for wearing green and honoring the memory of Saint Patrick of Ireland. Millions of Irish and Irish-at-heart will gather for celebrations across the United States.

Here are five of the largest and oldest St. Patrick's Day celebrations across the country, picked with the aid of eventcrazy.

Parade-goers should have generally dry weather at the top five celebrations with the exception of a shower possibility in Savannah, Ga., and Scranton, Pa. Parade-goers may want to layer in green to stay warm with chilly and breezy conditions in store for some of the largest parades, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Meghan Evans said.

Yorktown Irish Pipes & Drums in Yorktown Heights, New York marching in the 2012 Saint Patrick's Day Parade in New York City. Courtesy of Yorktown Irish Pipes & Drums

New York City

New York City hosts the nation's oldest parade, with roots going back to 1762 before the nation's founding. The parade starts at 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, March 17. Up to 250,000 marchers participate each year before 1 million spectators.

There will be a mix of clouds and sun and a high in the mid-30s F in New York City on Monday. Parade-goers will want to dress in layers and bring a jacket along.

Boston

The South Boston St. Patrick's Day Parade has been in existence since 1901, which was the 125th anniversary of the British evacuation of Boston during the Revolutionary War. The parade, listed as the second largest in the U.S. in terms of spectators. The parade is viewed by up to 1 million people, in addition to those watching on television. Marchers step on at 1 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 16.

It will be breezy and colder under mostly sunny skies in Boston, with a high in the upper 30s F.

Women from the Sanford High School color guard, of Sanford, Maine, twirl green flags while marching in a St. Patrick's Day Parade, in Boston's South Boston neighborhood, Sunday, March 17, 2013. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Savannah, Ga.

The 190th St. Patrick's Day Parade steps out at 10:15 a.m. EDT on Monday, March 17, 2014, in Georgia's oldest city. The Hibernian Society of Savannah held the first parade on March 17, 1813. Ahead of this year's parade, there will be a St. Patrick's Mass, also on Monday.

Mostly cloudy skies and a possible shower are in store for Monday with a high near 60 F.

Gaudy green revelers crammed the oak-shaded sidewalks of downtown Savannah for the St. Patrick's Day parade, Saturday, March, 16, 2013, in Savannah, Ga. (AP Photo/Stephen Morton)

Chicago

The dyeing of the Chicago River is always a highlight of the St. Patrick's Day Parade festivities. The parade is always held on a Saturday, with this year's parade at noon CDT on Saturday, March 15.

Partly sunny skies will greet parade-goers. The high will be in the low 40s F.

John Shepard and Gena Damento of Rochester Minn., take a photo of themselves kissing after the Chicago River was dyed green ahead of the St. Patrick's Day parade in Chicago, Saturday, March, 16, 2013. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

Scranton, Pa.

Scranton, Pa., holds the second largest parade in the country as far as the number of participants go, according to the parade's website. This year's parade will kick off at 11:45 a.m. EDT on Saturday, March 15.

Following a morning shower, clouds will give way to some sun, with a high near 50 F.

Scranton, Pa., St. Patrick's Day parade-goers gather in green on Saturday, March 9, 2013. (Photo/Kristen Connolly)

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A strong jet stream disturbance will dive across the Four Corners region and eject into Texas on Saturday. As warm and dry air clashes with warm and humid air streaming from the Gulf of Mexico, showers and thunderstorms will blossom over eastern Texas, including Dallas and Houston.

The biggest threats with these storms will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail as large as quarters or golf balls, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

As this storm system moves eastward Saturday night, a swath of strong to severe thunderstorms will cut across Louisiana and Mississippi, and then across Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday.

In addition to damaging winds, hail and the threat for an isolated tornado, very heavy, potentially flooding, rain will also become a concern.

Ice and Snow

Farther north, where colder air will be present, the exact track of the low through the Southeast will determine how much snow and ice falls.

It looks as though the best chance for snow and ice will be from far eastern Kansas eastward into the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and eastern New England.

Snow and ice should break out across eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday and then end rather quickly by Sunday evening. Farther east, snow and ice will likely linger through Sunday night across the Ohio Valley. It will not be until Monday that snow and ice arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England.

For now, anyone planning to travel Sunday and Monday can expect big-time delays, especially at the airports.

For those living from Texas to Georgia, now is a good time to brush up on your severe weather terminology.

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Current technology has advanced enough over recent years to provide ample alert of the potential for severe weather and the approach of localized severe storms. Be sure to understand the difference between a watch and a warning. A watch means that an area is being monitored for dangerous weather. A warning means that dangerous weather is imminent. When a warning is issued, there may be too little time to travel across town or across a county to escape the storm.

Keep in mind that lightning is one of Mother Nature's most dangerous killers. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to the storm to be struck by lightning, even if the sun is still shining.

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Known as Kelvin-Helmholtz Waves, these clouds are caused by turbulence and a change in winds over a relatively short distance vertically, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Edwards.

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The bottom of the clouds are saturated and the winds are lighter than the winds at the top of the formation, which give the clouds their wave breaking appearance, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Dave Samuhel.

Creating a spectacle for anyone able to view them, these clouds can also appear braid-like on radar imagery.

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Friday, March 14, 2014

Pi written out in the sky over Austin in 2014. (AirSign)

Those still lingering at the South by Southwest festival in Austin on Thursday (March 13) may have noticed a string of numbers emerging in the sky.

On the eve of Pi Day (which is Friday, March 14), five synchronized aircraft wrote out the first few hundred digits in pi's infinite sequence.

Starting with the famous 3.14, the dot matrix-style numbers went on for miles, according to AirSign, the company that organized the "Pi in the Sky" stunt, which started at 6:28 p.m.

"We chose 6:28 because it's pi times two, a number some believe is the truer reflection of the power of the circle," company officials wrote in a blog post.

Pi, or π, is a mathematical constant that represents the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter (π = c/d). No matter the size of the circle, pi remains the same. Because pi is an irrational number, it cannot be expressed as a simple fraction. Rather, pi can be written as an infinite decimal that never repeats (3.14159...). By December 2013, computers had calculated pi to a record 12 trillion digits, according to Numberworld.org.

Pi multiplied by two (6.28318...) is called tau and it is defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its radius. Some mathematicians have argued that tau would be more useful as a mathematical constant as it appears more often in calculations.

Planes writing numbers in the sky with their jet stream. #piinthesky awesome. Thanks @airsignusa pic.twitter.com/xEWuwbUb8Q

- Keri Lewis Brown (@kerilewisbrown) March 14, 2014

I don't always instagram pictures of the sky, but when I do, it's because they're sky writing pi. #piinthesky pic.twitter.com/DBzVANz9H8

- Sarah Dieken (@SarahDieken) March 14, 2014

Follow Megan Gannon on Twitter and Google+. Follow us @livescience, Facebook & Google+. Original article on Live Science.

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Saturday, March 15, 2014

The NASCAR Nationwide Series Sharpie Mini 300 auto race gets underway under dark skies after a rain delay at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tenn., Saturday, March 15, 2008. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Sunday's NASCAR race in Bristol, Tenn., may turn into a washout following a dry start to the weekend.

Those headed to today's Nationwide race won't need to worry about packing the umbrella as a dry day is on tap with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the lower 60s.

However, a much different story will unfold on Sunday as low pressure spreads rain across the region and continues into Monday.

What may start off as a few showers on Sunday morning will develop into a steadier rain by the afternoon before the race has a chance to start.

Currently, the race is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. on Sunday.

This rain may force NASCAR to postpone the race until Monday afternoon when the rain is forecast to taper off.

Drivers cannot race when the track is wet as the cars and the tires they use are not designed for rainy conditions.

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Fortunately for the drivers and the fans, Bristol Motor Speedway is equipped with stadium lighting to allow for night racing. If the race cannot start until late on Monday afternoon, the lights can be turned on to allow the race to continue after the sun sets.

This would not be the first time this season that NASCAR had to delay a race due to rain.

Back on Feb. 24, 2014, the Daytona 500 was delayed for over six hours due to rain and thunderstorms and was forced to end that night under the lights.

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On the northern fringe of this storm system, snow and ice will snarl travel from Missouri to Maryland into Monday.

For those living from Texas to Georgia, now is a good time to brush up on your severe weather terminology.

RELATED:
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Current technology has advanced enough over recent years to provide ample alert of the potential for severe weather and the approach of localized severe storms. Be sure to understand the difference between a watch and a warning. A watch means that an area is being monitored for dangerous weather. A warning means that dangerous weather is imminent. When a warning is issued, there may be too little time to travel across town or across a county to escape the storm.

Keep in mind that lightning is one of Mother Nature's most dangerous killers. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to the storm to be struck by lightning, even if the sun is still shining.

In the wake of this storm, quiet, dry, and mild weather is expected for the upcoming week.

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New York City

New York City hosts the nation's oldest parade, with roots going back to 1762 before the nation's founding. The parade starts at 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, March 17. Up to 250,000 marchers participate each year before 1 million spectators.

It will be mostly cloudy with snow and a high in the low-30s F in New York City on Monday. Parade-goers will want to dress in layers and bring a jacket along.

Boston

The South Boston St. Patrick's Day Parade has been in existence since 1901, which was the 125th anniversary of the British evacuation of Boston during the Revolutionary War. The parade, listed as the second largest in the U.S. in terms of spectators. The parade is viewed by up to 1 million people, in addition to those watching on television. Marchers step on at 1 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 16.

It will be breezy and colder with clouds and sun in Boston, with a high in the upper 30s F.


Women from the Sanford High School color guard, of Sanford, Maine, twirl green flags while marching in a St. Patrick's Day Parade, in Boston's South Boston neighborhood, Sunday, March 17, 2013. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Savannah, Ga.

Chicago

Scranton, Pa.

Scranton, Pa., holds the second largest parade in the country as far as the number of participants go, according to the parade's website. This year's parade will kick off at 11:45 a.m. EDT on Saturday, March 15.

Following a morning shower, clouds will give way to some sun, with a high near 50 F.

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This month's full moon -- which officially turns full at 1:08 p.m. EDT (1708 GMT) Sunday -- is called the "Full Worm Moon." The seemingly odd name comes from the appearance of earthworms as the ground softens after winter thaws. The online Slooh community telescope website will use the full moon event to examine an impact site in the Mare Nubium lunar basin. The webcast begins at 9 p.m. EDT (0100 March 17 GMT). You can view it directly through the Slooh website, or watch the full moon webcast live on Space.com.

The target of Sunday's Slooh lunar webcast is a region of Mare Nubium, where brightest asteroid strike on the moon ever seen was spoted last year. The asteroid was traveling at about 37,900 mph when it slammed into the moon, creating a crater about 131 feet wide on Sept. 11, 2013. Scientists announced the discovery on Feb. 24 of this year.

Scientists estimate that the asteroid was between 2 and 4.5 feet across. If an observer on Earth has been looking up at the moon during impact, they may have seen a long flash almost as bright as the North Star Polaris, brighter than any lunar impact recorded. [See a video of the bright lunar impact]

If a space rock of the size of the lunar hit struck the Earth, it would likely create an amazing fireball in the sky, but it would pose no threat to people on the ground, researchers have said. The impact was so spectacular on the moon because the natural satellite's extremely thin atmosphere (called an exosphere) does not protect the lunar surface from strikes like this one. "Ever since Luis and Walter Alvarez astonished the world in 1980 by presenting convincing evidence that an asteroid impacted our planet and wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, the threat of an Earth-altering collision has remained in the public awareness," Slooh astronomer Bob Berman said in a statement. "The astonishing double-whammy of Feb. 15, 2013, when an asteroid near miss occurred on the same day that an asteroid fragment exploded over Siberia, injuring 1,500 people, underscores the reality of thousands of uncharted asteroid fragments that can cross our path at any time. In the past year, Slooh has managed to track and image several of these in real-time, and displayed these encounters to the public as they happened."

Sunday night's full moon is not only known as the Full Worm Moon. It also carries the name "Full Crow Moon" for the cawing crows that signal the end of winter, and the "Full Crust Moon" for the crusted snow created by repeated thawing and freezing.

Editor's note: If you take an amazing photo or video of the March full moon, or any other night sky view, and would like to share it with Space.com for a story of image gallery, send images and comments to managing editor Tariq Malik at: spacephotos@space.com.

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